When Lagos Property Prices Become Unaffordable: Is the Market Broken, or Is the City Changing?

Few things capture the frustration of living in Lagos today quite like the price of property. What was once considered an ambitious but achievable goal, owning a home in one of Nigeria’s most economically important cities, increasingly feels like a privilege reserved for a very small percentage of the population.

That frustration was recently expressed in unusually blunt terms by media personality Frank Edoho, who described Lagos real estate as “armed robbery” while questioning the prices attached to some luxury properties in the city. His comments, published by Vanguard, have reignited a conversation that the real estate industry cannot afford to ignore: who exactly is Lagos being built for?

The language may be provocative, but the underlying question is legitimate.

There is an uncomfortable disconnect between what many Nigerians earn and what it now costs to secure decent accommodation in Lagos. In some neighbourhoods, the financial requirements for renting or purchasing property have moved far beyond what ordinary salaries can comfortably support. Recent reporting has highlighted two bedroom rents in parts of Lagos reaching several millions of naira annually, with agency fees and other upfront charges pushing the initial financial burden even higher.

Yet, calling the entire Lagos property market exploitative oversimplifies a much more complicated problem.

It is easy to look at a ₦200 million, ₦300 million or ₦500 million property and conclude that the developer or seller has simply decided to charge whatever they want. Sometimes that may indeed be the case. But property pricing is influenced by an ecosystem of costs that has become increasingly difficult for developers to control.

Land acquisition, construction materials, labour, professional fees, infrastructure, financing, logistics, taxation, security and regulatory requirements all contribute to the final price of a property. When the cost of developing a building rises, the final selling price inevitably comes under pressure.

There is also the issue of location.

A property in Lagos is not priced solely according to the number of bedrooms or the size of the building. Its proximity to commercial centres, roads, schools, employment opportunities, infrastructure and other amenities contributes significantly to its value. As demand concentrates around particular parts of the city, land becomes more expensive, and the cost is ultimately transferred through the development chain.

This is why comparing a luxury property in Lagos directly with a property or even an entire island overseas can be misleading. Different markets have different land economics, infrastructure costs, taxation systems, financing structures, currencies and demand profiles.

But that explanation should not become an excuse for unreasonable pricing.

In my view, the most important issue raised by the debate is not whether every expensive Lagos property is overpriced. It is that there are not enough properties being developed for the people who actually need them.

Nigeria's housing deficit has been estimated at 14.925 million units, according to figures cited by Lagos State's housing commissioner earlier this year, while an additional 15.2 million existing homes were described as structurally inadequate or substandard. Lagos alone is attempting to expand its housing stock through government developments and public private partnerships.

That tells us something important.

The problem is not simply that Lagos has expensive houses. The problem is that the supply of suitable housing has not kept pace with the population, economic activity and aspirations of the people who want to live here.

When supply is constrained and demand continues to rise, prices respond accordingly and Lagos has an almost unique ability to generate demand.

It remains Nigeria's commercial capital, one of its largest employment centres and a major destination for entrepreneurs, professionals, investors and businesses. People continue to move towards the city because economic opportunities continue to concentrate there.

You cannot sustainably solve Lagos's housing problem by simply telling developers to reduce prices. You have to create an environment where more homes can be delivered at different price points.

But developers also have a responsibility, this is where the industry needs to have an honest conversation with itself. Market forces explain property prices, but they do not justify every price.

There is a difference between a property being expensive because it is genuinely expensive to develop and a property being expensive because everyone involved in the transaction believes the market will tolerate it.

Real estate professionals have a responsibility to provide transparency around what buyers are actually paying for. Developers and agents should be able to explain the value behind a property's asking price, rather than relying solely on location, aesthetics or the assumption that "Lagos property always appreciates."

Buyers, too, must become more sophisticated.

The fact that a property is expensive does not automatically make it a good investment. Neither does a low asking price automatically make it a bargain. Title, location, infrastructure, development potential, rental demand, exit opportunities, construction quality and the broader trajectory of the neighbourhood all matter.

Price is only one part of value. That distinction is particularly important for first time buyers who may be tempted to stretch themselves financially simply because they fear that property prices will continue rising.

One of the most interesting consequences of Lagos's property crisis is the increasing attention being given to areas outside the traditional prime locations.

As property prices rise in established neighbourhoods, developers and buyers are naturally looking towards emerging communities and the outskirts of the metropolis. This is not necessarily a bad thing.

In fact, it could be one of the most important developments in the future of Lagos real estate.

A city cannot continue expanding economically while keeping the majority of its affordable housing concentrated in a small number of already expensive locations. The answer lies partly in decentralisation: developing new residential communities, improving transportation infrastructure, connecting emerging areas to employment centres and creating neighbourhoods where people can afford not only to live, but to build sustainable lives.

This is where government policy becomes crucial.

Better roads, reliable public transportation, infrastructure, land administration, planning enforcement and access to long term financing can reduce some of the pressures that ultimately find their way into property prices.

The private sector cannot solve this problem alone. Neither can government. The solution has to be collaborative.

Despite all the criticism surrounding property prices, I do not believe the conclusion should be that people should stop investing in Lagos real estate.

Quite the opposite. Lagos remains a fundamentally important real estate market. The question is not whether there is opportunity, but whether investors and homebuyers are approaching that opportunity intelligently.

For investors, the changing geography of Lagos presents an opportunity to identify areas before they become fully established. For homebuyers, it creates the possibility of looking beyond the most obvious neighbourhoods and considering properties that offer a better balance between affordability, accessibility and long term value.

This requires professional guidance.

A buyer should not have to navigate the complexities of Lagos real estate alone, particularly when a property represents one of the largest financial commitments they may ever make.

At Geoponts Properties, we believe the future of real estate should not simply be about selling properties. It should be about helping people make informed property decisions.

Whether you are searching for a home, considering an investment or exploring emerging opportunities in Lagos, the goal should always be the same: to match your money with the right property, in the right location, for the right purpose.

The conversation sparked by Frank Edoho's comments should therefore go beyond whether Lagos real estate deserves the label “armed robbery.” The more productive question is this:

How do we build a Lagos where property remains a valuable investment without becoming an impossible dream for the people who live and work here?

That is the conversation the industry, government and buyers should be having.

And until that question has a satisfactory answer, professional, transparent and client focused real estate guidance will remain more important than ever.

Let Geoponts Properties help you find an opportunity that makes sense for your goals, budget and future. Contact Geoponts Properties today and take your next property decision with confidence.